Forecasting Fertility, Family Planning, And Maternal Health Indicators in India: Evidence from Five Rounds of the National Family Health Survey

India has experienced substantial improvements in fertility, family planning, and maternal healthcare over the past three decades. This study analyses trends in key reproductive and maternal health indicators using data from the five completed rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-1 to NFHS-5) and projects their likely status in NFHS-6. Multiple regression models, including linear, polynomial, exponential, logarithmic, and power models, were evaluated, and the best-fitting model for each indicator was selected based on the coefficient of determination (R²). The findings project a continued decline in the Total Fertility Rate, accompanied by increasing contraceptive prevalence and greater adoption of modern contraceptive methods. The unmet need for family planning is expected to decline further, while institutional births and skilled birth attendance are projected to approach universal coverage. However, female sterilization is likely to remain the predominant contraceptive method, whereas male sterilization is projected to remain extremely low, highlighting persistent gender disparities in family planning. The study demonstrates the usefulness of statistical forecasting for anticipating future reproductive health trends and supporting evidence-based policymaking. The findings have important implications for strengthening family planning services, promoting balanced contraceptive choices, increasing male participation in reproductive health, and improving maternal healthcare. By integrating fertility, family planning, and maternal health indicators within a single analytical framework, the study contributes to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and 5 (Gender Equality) and provides valuable evidence for future public health planning in India.