Loneliness and depressive symptoms among middle school students in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region of China: network analysis and moderated mediation model

Loneliness is a well-documented risk factor for depressive symptoms in adolescents. However, the mediating role of emotion regulation strategies and the moderating role of emotion regulation self-efficacy (ERSE) in the association between loneliness and depressive symptoms among middle school students in Southern Xinjiang remain insufficiently explored. This study aimed to fill this research gap by investigating these mediating and moderating effects. A cross-sectional study design was adopted, involving 2,302 middle school students in Southern Xinjiang (M = 13.43 years, SD = 0.99; 51.48% male). Participants completed self-report questionnaires to assess loneliness, depressive symptoms, emotion regulation strategies (cognitive reappraisal and expressive suppression), and emotion regulation self-efficacy. Network analysis and moderated mediation analysis were utilized for data analysis. Network analysis identified four key bridge indicators (i.e., introverted personality, lack of companionship, downheartedness, and constipation) that link loneliness and depressive symptoms. Moderated mediation analysis showed that cognitive reappraisal significantly mediated the relationship between loneliness and depressive symptoms, whereas expressive suppression showed no significant overall mediating effect. Notably, although the overall moderated mediation index of the full model was non-significant, ERSE exhibited significant moderating effects on specific individual pathways. Specifically, ERSE significantly moderated the direct association between loneliness and depressive symptoms, as well as the predictive path from loneliness to cognitive reappraisal. Further simple slope tests revealed this moderating effect was asymmetric: loneliness significantly and negatively predicted cognitive reappraisal only among adolescents with high ERSE, while such an effect was non-significant under low ERSE. These findings deepen the understanding of the differentiated pathways through which loneliness is associated with depressive symptoms in this understudied ethnic minority adolescent population. They also provide targeted and practical implications for the development of precise mental health intervention strategies to protect the psychological well-being of middle school students in Southern Xinjiang.