Long-term decline in above-ground carbon sinks in Brazilian tropical and subtropical forests
Abstract Recent evidence indicates that Brazilian forests are shifting from persistent carbon sinks to emerging carbon sources, with important implications for the global climate. To investigate this trend, we analyse long-term census data from 49 forest sites spanning southeast and southern Brazil, including tropical and subtropical forests. We examine above-ground carbon dynamics and its relationship with tree diversity and functional traits that are tightly linked with species’ carbon processing and storage capacities. Our findings reveal a long-term trend of taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic homogenisation and a decline in the forests’ above-ground carbon sink. Specifically, homogeneous forests have lower carbon losses, whilst forests with more conservative species are associated with greater carbon gains and lower carbon losses. Overall, our study establishes a baseline to understand and predict the above-ground carbon sink in the face of ongoing climate change in this region.
Authors
- Wilder Bento da Silva (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8187-4329)
- Vinícius Andrade Maia (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5805-113X)
- Fernanda Moreira Gianasi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9638-7024)
- Leony Aparecido Silva Ferreira (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8262-2123)
- Felipe de Carvalho Araújo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0210-8763)
- Tainá Mamede Cirne-Silva (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4364-3981)
- Cléber Rodrigo de Souza (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4122-2748)
- Natália de Aguiar‐Campos (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1145-824X)
- Nathalle Cristine Alencar Fagundes (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6518-6104)
- Miguel Gama Reis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8138-2829)
- Jean Daniel Morel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6226-4779)
- Marco Aurélio Leite Fontes (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8467-4667)
- Rafaella Tavares Pereira
- Pedro Higuchi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3855-555X)
- Fernanda Coelho de Souza (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3919-4493)
- Denise Moura Madeira (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6273-2790)
- Rubens Manoel dos Santos (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4075-462X)
- Lidiany Carolina Arantes da Silva (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3881-2579)
- Alisson Borges Miranda Santos (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5825-8395)
- André Maciel da Silva (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3469-2810)
- Vinvivenci Filipe Pereira de Lima e Silva
- Renan de Soldi Matzner
- Ana Carolina da Silva (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1285-640X)
- Ana Lívia de Carvalho Rodrigues
- Michael de Oliveira Alves Braga
- Gabriela Gomes Pires de Paula
- Fernanda de Oliveira
- Jamir Prado-Junior
- Camila Laís Farrapo
Institutions
- Universidade Federal de Lavras (BR)
- Universidade do Estado de Santa Catarina (BR)
- Universidade do Estado de Minas Gerais (BR)
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine (AU)
- Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (BR)
- James Cook University (AU)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2026-08-17
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-74921-0
- Primary Topic
- Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
- Universidade Federal de Uberlândia
- Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
- Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais
- Universidade do Estado de Santa Catarina
- Universidade Federal de Lavras