The Pandemic’s Shock to the Mining Industry: A Counterfactual Analysis of Global Water–Carbon–Economy Linkages

The mining industry is a cornerstone of global energy security and industrial supply chains, yet its resilience to systemic disruptions such as COVID-19 has been critically overlooked. This disruption provided a rare opportunity to trace supply-chain impacts. Using an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output (EEMRIO) model integrated with a Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) weighted approach. We compare pandemic trajectories with counterfactual no-pandemic trajectories: the no-pandemic model (calibrated on 2004–2018) projects 2019–2025, while the pandemic model (calibrated through 2023) projects 2023–2025, with 2023 serving as the observed baseline and transition year. Our findings reveal a transient reduction in mining water and carbon footprints, juxtaposed with stark economic contractions: mining value fell by 40% in China, 37% in India, and 13% in the United States. The weighted component among the water-carbon-value (WVC) analysis further uncovers a tripolar spatial pattern, categorizing countries into financial hubs with high value, such as Switzerland, carbon-locked exporters like Brunei, and water-stressed regions, including Cambodia. Despite absorbing substantial embodied environmental burdens, China maintained its position as the global value hub. These insights underscore the urgency of policies that enhance structural efficiency, decarbonize the power sector, and foster supply chain diversification to decouple economic value from environmental pressures while mitigating spatial inequalities.