Mapping potential conflicts between exotic and native mangroves under human and climate scenarios: A spatial assessment framework in Guangdong, China

The ongoing spread of exotic mangroves poses an increasing ecological threat to native mangrove biodiversity, community stability, and coastal wetland ecosystem functions. In China, Sonneratia apetala and Laguncularia racemosa have been widely introduced for mangrove restoration due to their rapid growth and high environmental adaptability; however, their potential spatial conflicts with native mangroves remain insufficiently quantified. This study developed a risk-oriented spatial assessment framework to distinguish habitat suitability from potential conflict zones between native and exotic mangroves in Guangdong, China. By integrating MaxEnt modeling across natural, human-disturbance, and future climate scenarios with spatial overlap and Potential Conflict Index (PCI) analyses, the framework provides a management-oriented evaluation of exotic-native mangrove conflicts. Scenario comparisons revealed sharp contrasts: human disturbance drastically reduced highly suitable habitats (HSA) by 17.0–66.6% from natural baselines (80,315 ha, 43,193 ha, and 12,127 ha for native, S. apetala , and L. racemosa ), shrinking PCI-identified high conflict zones from 160,350 ha to 135,239 ha. Future climate induced further contraction to 109,911 ha, driven primarily by L. racemosa 's high sensitivity versus S. apetala 's sustained adaptability. Despite these shifting dynamics, the PCI consistently highlighted Zhanjiang and Yangjiang as priority management areas. These spatial findings support a tiered management strategy predicated on prior field verification: targeted removal of exotics in identified conflict zones, restricting further exotic planting where native recovery potential is high, and promoting native-species-prioritized restoration in human-impacted coastal areas. This study provides a refined, spatially explicit framework for balancing mangrove restoration targets with the long-term integrity of native coastal ecosystems.