Modelling the interrelationships among drivers of Belt and Road infrastructure adoption in Nigeria: a PLS-SEM analysis

Despite extensive scholarly debate on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), empirical evidence on the structural relationships among host-country drivers remains limited, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study develops and empirically tests an integrated framework comprising five host-country constructs: socio-economic and environmental, political, policy and governance, infrastructure-led, and technological drivers within the Nigerian context of BRI-supported infrastructure development. Using the PLS-SEM method, six hypothesised relationships were examined using survey data collected from 80 built-environment professionals. The findings indicate that socio-economic and environmental drivers constitute the strongest proximate influences within the proposed framework, exerting significant positive effects on infrastructure-led (β = 0.670, p < 0.001), political (β = 0.525, p < 0.001), and technological drivers (β = 0.475, p < 0.001). Political drivers significantly strengthen policy and governance arrangements, whereas policy and governance drivers exert a modest influence on infrastructure-led drivers (β = 0.170, p = 0.019), suggesting that governance plays a supportive institutional role within the proposed framework. Overall, the findings suggest that the identified host-country drivers operate as a sequential institutional process rather than as independent factors. The study provides empirical support for a theoretically grounded framework and offers a foundation for future comparative research on BRI-supported infrastructure development.