Multidimensional factors are associated with farmers’ management-entity choices in Guizhou under China’s new round of the sloping land conversion program

Using survey data from 626 households participating in the New Round of the Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) in Guizhou Province, this study examines factors associated with farmers’ management-entity choices and their hierarchical relationships. A Lasso-Logistic model identifies key variables, and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) characterizes their hierarchical structure and potential influence pathways. The results show that the proportion of off-farm employment, SLCP-converted forestland area, risk preference, irrigation convenience, and possession of a forest tenure certificate are positively associated with organized management, whereas the number of acquaintances managing the same tree species is negatively associated with this choice. ISM places risk preference and SLCP-converted forestland area at the deep foundational level, the number of acquaintances and irrigation convenience at the intermediate transmission level, and off-farm employment and forest tenure certificate at the surface proximate level. These findings show how labor allocation, resource endowments, social networks, management conditions, and tenure security jointly structure farmers’ management choices. Differentiated management support, improved infrastructure and tenure services, and stronger technical and market services may improve the management of SLCP-converted forestland and support household income.