Evolving Scripts of Nativist Violence? A Latent Class Analysis of Violent Crime Against Migrants in Sweden, 2009–2022

This article examines the structure and evolution of violent nativist crime in Sweden between 2009 and 2022. Drawing on a novel dataset of 2,522 incidents generated from the full register of police reports of violent criminal offenses with suspected hate motives, the study conceptualizes such violence as composed of recurring “violent scripts” – configurations of actors, settings, means, and actions. Using latent class analysis (LCA), the study identifies five distinct scripts: neighborhood vandalism, institution-targeted arson, daytime assaults, nightlife assaults, and premeditated public violence. The findings show that nativist violence in Sweden is predominantly unarmed, interpersonal, and embedded in routine public settings. Over time, there is a marked increase in individualized daytime assaults and a corresponding decline in collective nightlife violence. Other forms, such as institution-targeted arson, appear episodically in response to specific political contexts. By identifying distinct situational scripts and tracing their temporal dynamics, the article contributes to a more differentiated understanding of bias-motivated violence and highlights the need for tailored prevention strategies across different forms of offending.