Personality variability during development predicts alcohol use before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Changes in personality during adolescence may shape future alcohol use, especially in times of societal crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted social norms and stress regulation, making it a natural experiment to examine how early-life personality trajectories predict later substance use. Using longitudinal data from the European IMAGEN cohort (N = 968), we investigated whether intra-individual personality changes during adolescence predicted alcohol use at three timepoints: pre-pandemic, immediately after COVID-19 onset (T1), and several months into the pandemic (T2). Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) were used to model non-linear relationships between adolescent personality change (e.g., in anxiety sensitivity and openness) and alcohol use frequency across time. Participants were drawn from the IMAGEN cohort (N = 968; 54.4% female), assessed longitudinally from early adolescence (BL: M = 13.93, SD = 0.41) through middle (FU1: M = 16.04, SD = 0.60) and late adolescence (FU2: M = 18.41, SD = 0.65) to early adulthood (FU3: M = 22.00, SD = 0.66), with additional follow-ups during the COVID-19 pandemic (COVID-T1: M = 25.00, SD = 0.81; COVID-T2: M = 25.56, SD = 0.75). Assessments were conducted at approximately 2-year intervals during adolescence and at shorter intervals (several months) during the COVID-19 period. Analyses controlled for sex and country-level lockdown stringency. Intra-individual fluctuations in anxiety sensitivity significantly predicted increased alcohol use several months into the pandemic (T2; EDF = 1.86, p < 0.05), but not immediately after lockdown (T1). Pre-pandemic alcohol use was instead associated with changes in openness (EDF = 1.00, p < 0.05). Exploratory analyses suggested gender differences in anxiety-related drinking risk. Our findings suggest that personality dynamics in adolescence shape alcohol use responses during societal crises. Different traits appear to matter depending on the temporal and emotional context of the stressor. These findings have implications for personalized prevention efforts targeting stress-related substance use in youth.

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Journal
Scientific Reports
Published
2026-08-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-63441-y
Primary Topic
Personality Traits and Psychology
Type
article
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article

Personality variability during development predicts alcohol use before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Andreas Heinz, Sylvane Desrivières, Tomáš Paus, Maren Prignitz et al.
Scientific Reports
Personality Traits and Psychology
article

Personality variability during development predicts alcohol use before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Andreas Heinz, Sylvane Desrivières, Tomáš Paus, Maren Prignitz, Emanuel Schwarz, Stella Guldner, Jean‐Luc Martinot, Marie‐Laure Paillère Martinot, Arun L.W. Bokde, Christoph Borzikowsky, Nathalie Holz, Antoine Grigis, Luise Poustka, Dimitri Papadopoulos Orfanos, Elisa Wandinger, Sebastian Siehl, Frauke Nees, Gareth J. Barker, Eric Artiges A, Rabia Zohair, Ersoy Kocak, Karina Janson, Antonia Fröhlich, Tobias Banaschewski, Sabina Millenet, Olaf Reis, Herta Flor, Juliane H. Fröhner, Hugh Garavan, Gunter Schumann, Nilakshi Vaidya, Rüdiger Brühl, Robert Whelan, Penny Gowland, Tianye Jia, Michael N. Smolka, Sarah Hohmann, Henrik Walter
article en

Abstract

Changes in personality during adolescence may shape future alcohol use, especially in times of societal crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted social norms and stress regulation, making it a natural experiment to examine how early-life personality trajectories predict later substance use. Using longitudinal data from the European IMAGEN cohort (N = 968), we investigated whether intra-individual personality changes during adolescence predicted alcohol use at three timepoints: pre-pandemic, immediately after COVID-19 onset (T1), and several months into the pandemic (T2). Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) were used to model non-linear relationships between adolescent personality change (e.g., in anxiety sensitivity and openness) and alcohol use frequency across time. Participants were drawn from the IMAGEN cohort (N = 968; 54.4% female), assessed longitudinally from early adolescence (BL: M = 13.93, SD = 0.41) through middle (FU1: M = 16.04, SD = 0.60) and late adolescence (FU2: M = 18.41, SD = 0.65) to early adulthood (FU3: M = 22.00, SD = 0.66), with additional follow-ups during the COVID-19 pandemic (COVID-T1: M = 25.00, SD = 0.81; COVID-T2: M = 25.56, SD = 0.75). Assessments were conducted at approximately 2-year intervals during adolescence and at shorter intervals (several months) during the COVID-19 period. Analyses controlled for sex and country-level lockdown stringency. Intra-individual fluctuations in anxiety sensitivity significantly predicted increased alcohol use several months into the pandemic (T2; EDF = 1.86, p < 0.05), but not immediately after lockdown (T1). Pre-pandemic alcohol use was instead associated with changes in openness (EDF = 1.00, p < 0.05). Exploratory analyses suggested gender differences in anxiety-related drinking risk. Our findings suggest that personality dynamics in adolescence shape alcohol use responses during societal crises. Different traits appear to matter depending on the temporal and emotional context of the stressor. These findings have implications for personalized prevention efforts targeting stress-related substance use in youth.

Scientific ReportsVol. 16(1)
University of Vermont (US), Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (DE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), University of Nottingham (GB), Inserm (FR), Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging (GB), University of Mannheim (DE), King's College London (GB), University of Toronto (CA), Trinity College Dublin (IE), Heidelberg University (DE), Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR), Université Paris-Saclay (FR), University Hospital Heidelberg (DE), Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Sainte-Justine (CA), LMU Klinikum (DE), Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (DE), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (DE), Sorbonne Université (FR), Assistance Publique – Hôpitaux de Paris (FR), Central Institute of Mental Health (DE), University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (DE), CEA Paris-Saclay (FR), Laboratoire de Biologie et Pharmacologie Appliquée (FR), Shanghai Center for Brain Science and Brain-Inspired Technology (CN), Neuroimaging Center (DE), University of Rostock (DE), Technische Universität Dresden (DE), Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin (DE), Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (DE), University of Lübeck (DE)
Government of the United Kingdom, UK Research and Innovation, European Commission, Science Foundation Ireland, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, Fondation pour la Recherche Médicale, Fondation de France, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Fédération pour la Recherche sur le Cerveau, Mission Interministérielle de Lutte Contre les Drogues et les Conduites Addictives, National Institutes of Health, HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme, Medical Research Council
Good health and well-being
Openalex Percentile: Top 6%
Personality Traits and Psychology
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