High dynamic satellite data reveal slower global urban expansion and rising inequality during COVID

While the COVID-19 pandemic has affected global public health and economies, evidence on its impact on urban expansion remains limited. Here we show, using high-dynamic global urban expansion mapping, that global urban areas expand by 6,722.9 km² during 2020–2022, 27% less than expected in the absence of the pandemic. The global urban expansion rate decreases by 29%, implying a 9.8-month delay relative to a counterfactual no-pandemic scenario. Average urban expansion area in upper-middle-income countries is more than five times that in lower-middle-income countries, while high-income countries also experience substantial reductions in expansion rates. Inequality in urban expansion intensity increases, with 90.6% of the net increase arising from differences among countries within the same income group. Additional country-month analyses suggest that strict government containment policies are more consistently associated with the shortfall in urban expansion than COVID-19 case rates alone. These findings demonstrate the potential of monthly satellite mapping for assessing short-term disruptions to urbanization. Consider this: The COVID-19 pandemic slowed global urban expansion to 6722.9 square kilometers in 2020–2022, 27 percent below expected levels and causing a 9.8-month delay, with widening inequality driven mainly within income groups according to monthly satellite mapping and country-month analysis.