Land-use transitions and carbon emissions of aquaculture expansion in the Brazilian Amazon
Accounting for land-use change underlying food sector expansion is critical for conserving ecosystem integrity. This challenge is particularly acute in the Amazon, where the conversion of forests for food production is pronounced and has broad implications for global biodiversity and the cycling of water and carbon. Here, we analyze land-use transitions associated with aquaculture development in the Brazilian Amazon. We found that a 450-fold increase in aquaculture pond area from 1985 to 2022 occurred primarily on pasturelands (87%) but also included wetland conversion (4%) and deforestation (5%). Notably, continued growth can be sustained within already altered landscapes: In Rondônia, the leading aquaculture state in the Amazon, production could double by converting only 1.2% of the total degraded pasture area. While directing aquaculture expansion toward degraded pastures could reduce further natural habitat conversion and carbon costs historically associated with food production in the Amazon, realizing this potential will depend on strong governance and enforceable land-use policies to guide siting decisions.
Authors
- M. G. da Silva (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2174-7720)
- Sebastián Heilpern (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8673-3149)
- Kathryn J. Fiorella (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8625-2473)
- Carolina Rodrigues da Costa Dória (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1638-0063)
- Marcela Miranda (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6994-8690)
- Suresh A. Sethi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0053-1827)
- Daniel Andrade Maciel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4543-5908)
- Xiangtao Xu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9402-9474)
- Adry Trindade (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2497-1947)
- Marta Eichemberger Ummus (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3746-9748)
- Anmol Kabra
- Nicholas E. Ray (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1959-3120)
- Peter B. McIntyre (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1809-7552)
- Alexander S. Flecker (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4636-2109)
- Rafael M. Almeida (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5398-7054)
- Bruce R. Forsberg (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7606-0585)
- Gabriel Moiano Cesar (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6497-626X)
- Jean Pierre Ometto (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4221-1039)
- Joshua Fan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8525-0222)
- Fábio Roland (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8124-9972)
- Carla P. Gomes (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4441-7225)
- Ícaro Barbosa (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7260-4466)
- Patricia Moraes‐Valenti (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5917-0539)
- Laura Greenstreet (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0635-3870)
- Wagner C. Valenti (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8526-1052)
- F. Pacheco (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2143-5225)
- Nathan Barros (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1752-8621)
- Aline de Matos Valerio (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5478-845X)
- David Mcgrath
- Ilce Oliveira
- Jucilene Cavali
- Brendan H. Rappazzo
Institutions
- Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (BR)
- Universidade Federal de Rondônia (BR)
- City University of New York (US)
- Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (BR)
- Cornell University (US)
- Earth Island Institute (US)
- The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley (US)
- Universidade do Tocantins (BR)
- Indiana University Bloomington (US)
- Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (BR)
- University of Delaware (US)
- Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp) (BR)
- Stanford University (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Science Advances
- Published
- 2026-08-14
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aec5472
- Primary Topic
- Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- Schmidt Futures
- Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo
- Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
- Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability, Cornell University
- Air Force Office of Scientific Research