Scenario-Based Seismic Risk Assessment of Six Armenian Cities: Integration of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability Models

Armenia is located within the Arabia–Eurasia collision zone and is exposed to a significant seismic hazard associated with active fault systems capable of generating destructive earthquakes. The 1988 Spitak earthquake highlighted the vulnerability of Armenian urban areas and the need for reliable seismic risk assessment methods. This study presents the first harmonized scenario-based seismic risk assessment framework for six major Armenian cities by integrating seismotectonic source characterization, deterministic ground-motion modeling, locally derived Vs30-based site characterization, GIS-based exposure modeling, and vulnerability assessment within the ELER (Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine) platform. Vulnerability functions were adapted to Armenian building typologies and calibrated using observed damage from the 1988 Spitak earthquake. Deterministic earthquake scenarios (Mw 6.5–7.3) were developed based on the seismic potential of the country’s principal active fault systems. The results reveal substantial spatial variability in seismic risk controlled by differences in ground-motion intensity, local site conditions, building vulnerability, and population exposure. Masonry-dominated urban areas exhibit the highest relative structural losses, whereas Yerevan experiences the greatest absolute losses because of its large population and concentrated building stock. Severe damage and collapse (D4–D5) may affect more than 20–25% of buildings in the most vulnerable cities. Validation against observed 1988 earthquake damage demonstrates the applicability of the proposed framework for seismic risk reduction, emergency preparedness, and long-term urban resilience planning in Armenia.