Assessment of Solar and BAPV Potential in Post-WW II Social Housing Districts in Poznan: A Multi-Scale Analysis

Building-applied photovoltaics (BAPV) offer a practical retrofit pathway for the prefabricated social housing estates of Central and Eastern Europe. This study assesses the solar and photovoltaic potential of post-WW II housing districts in Poznań, Poland, through a multi-scale workflow spanning the city, district, and building levels. Measured municipal rooftop data for 336 residential buildings in four districts were combined with tree-inclusive parametric solar simulations, calibrated against the rooftop solar cadastre (normalized mean bias error of +0.4% after calibration), to select South Winogrady and two representative buildings. Three PV design scenarios were then evaluated in roof, facade, and combined configurations using a techno-economic model that incorporates manufacturer-warranted degradation, maintenance, inverter replacement, and a ±25% electricity price and installation cost sensitivity envelope. Roof configurations pay back in 6.6–7.2 years (30-year return on investment of 286–321%), facade systems are economically defensible only on the best-exposed surfaces (8.9–13.8 years), and all configurations remain profitable even under the pessimistic bounding case. ENVI-met simulations of the same scenarios show localized pedestrian-level reductions in the Universal Thermal Climate Index of up to 2.41 °C near the PV-equipped buildings, persisting under 2050 climate projections. The results provide a transferable evidence chain for prioritizing BAPV retrofits in standardized post-war housing stock.