Modeling Predictive Dynamics of Carbon Sequestration Service in Morocco’s Protected Areas Using InVEST: A Case Study of Ifrane National Park

The Ifrane National Park (INP), situated in the Middle Atlas Mountains in Morocco, is renowned for its unique bioecological attributes and rich biodiversity. The park provides key ecosystem services, notably climate regulation, with its Atlas cedar forests serving as an important carbon reservoir. Despite its importance, the park faces challenges associated with Land Use Land Cover Changes (LULCCs). These dynamics, driven by population settlement in mountain areas, intensify pressure on forest resources and accelerate the conversion of rangelands into croplands. Our study aims to examine the carbon sequestration service (CSS) in INP and its changes in response to land use dynamics before and after the park’s creation. We first use Google Earth Engine platform to map Land Use Land Cover (LULC) over three decades (1992/2022). Then, we quantify and map CSS using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST 3.10.2) model. Finally, we assess the economic value of this service over time using the social cost of carbon, adjusted by an appropriate discount rate. Our findings show that CSS declined by −217,738.4 tC/year (1992–2002) and −177,903.2 tC/year (2002–2012) prior to the park’s establishment, before rising to +61,786.8 tC/year during 2012–2022, following the park’s establishment and subsequent forest restoration, increasing its economic value from a net loss to +12,340,544 USD/year. By addressing a significant knowledge gap regarding CSS dynamics and economic value within a protected area, this study highlights the effectiveness of conservation measures and offers a practical tool for managers to inform decision makers, promote conservation and restoration investments, and engage local communities in sustainable development initiatives.