From spirits to crime: two centuries of alcohol and homicide in the West

Abstract This paper constructs a new annual panel for 14 Western countries over 1800–2016, linking homicide to alcohol consumption (by beverage type), drug offenses, deterrence, and education. The central innovation is the first harmonized long-run cross-country alcohol series that can be aligned with the major historical waves in lethal violence. Across graphical evidence, narratives, and multivariate panel regressions, homicide co-moves strongly with alcohol, while education, deterrence, and demography capture the broader institutional context. We interpret the estimates as suggestive long-run relationships and use them for a multivariate historical accounting of the post-war crime wave and subsequent decline.