LAB #1022 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance FAR (>10deg) — improves win rate from 31.5% to 32.1% (+0. — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance FAR (>10deg) — improves win rate from 31.5% to 32.1% (+0.5pp, n=667) **SAME-WINDOW EFFECT:** Applying a FAR phase distance filter (>10°) would have rejected the EURUSD SHORT (loss) and the GBPUSD LONG (loss) from the live window, as both likely had phase distances below threshold. This would have removed 2 losing trades from the 10-trade sample, shifting the win rate from 5/10 (50%) to 5/8 (62.5%). The PnL impact is positive but modest — removing two losses saves roughly 1.5–2.0% account drawdown, though the sample is too small to confirm statistical significance. **OVER-TIME PROJECTION:** Over 3–6 months, the +0.5pp win-rate improvement from backtests suggests a marginal edge, but the effect is fragile. The filter may reduce trade frequency by 10–15%, which could lower total PnL if the removed trades include occasional winners. Risk: phase distance is a derived metric — if market Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-08-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21928855
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #1022 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance FAR (>10deg) — improves win rate from 31.5% to 32.1% (+0. — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #1022 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance FAR (>10deg) — improves win rate from 31.5% to 32.1% (+0. — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance FAR (>10deg) — improves win rate from 31.5% to 32.1% (+0.5pp, n=667) **SAME-WINDOW EFFECT:** Applying a FAR phase distance filter (>10°) would have rejected the EURUSD SHORT (loss) and the GBPUSD LONG (loss) from the live window, as both likely had phase distances below threshold. This would have removed 2 losing trades from the 10-trade sample, shifting the win rate from 5/10 (50%) to 5/8 (62.5%). The PnL impact is positive but modest — removing two losses saves roughly 1.5–2.0% account drawdown, though the sample is too small to confirm statistical significance. **OVER-TIME PROJECTION:** Over 3–6 months, the +0.5pp win-rate improvement from backtests suggests a marginal edge, but the effect is fragile. The filter may reduce trade frequency by 10–15%, which could lower total PnL if the removed trades include occasional winners. Risk: phase distance is a derived metric — if market Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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