Risk assessment of transnational cooperation of Chinese grain enterprises in the new international situation

Abstract Grain is fundamental to national survival and development, making food security a global priority. Chinese grain enterprises play a key role in ensuring this security through transnational cooperation. However, growing geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty have heightened risks across the grain supply chain. This study employs programmatic grounded theory to identify six categories of cooperation risk: political, economic, social, legal, resource and environmental, and Sino-foreign relations risks. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weight method are used to determine indicator weights, while the simplified ELECTRE method evaluates and ranks country-specific risks. Cluster analysis further classifies nations by risk level, and policy implications are proposed to mitigate cooperation failures. The findings provide a valuable reference for governments and enterprises to enhance the stability, sustainability, and risk resilience of China’s transnational grain cooperation.