MODEL ADOPTION #1014: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.6% to 41.1% — E8 Intelligence Research
DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: The "min confirmations >= 6" filter is a statistical artifact, not a geometric timing edge. E8-node/Gods-Clock rhythm logic already defines entry timing by phase alignment — confirmation count is a lagging, non-causal metric that correlates with noise reduction in the backtest but has no fixed relationship to the FADE polarity edge. The +9.5pp win-rate gain is likely a regime-specific overfit (n=333 is modest, and the live sample of 7 trades is trivial). The filter will systematically reject early-phase entries that are geometrically valid, reducing trade frequency and potentially cutting off the largest winners that emerge from low-confirmation setups. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win rate may rise 5–10pp in the short term, but total PnL will likely drop 15–25% due to missed high-RR trades and reduced opportunity count. The filter does not improve the edge — it just hides the losses from low-confirmation noise, which is already managed by the FADE polarity logic. R Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-08-14
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21928767
- Primary Topic
- Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
- Type
- preprint