The impact of regional trade deals on North Macedonia’s wine exports

Purpose The Macedonian wine industry has a long-standing tradition and plays a crucial role in the country’s agricultural sector, being the second largest exporter and a significant contributor to value added products. This paper aims to evaluate the influence of the Central and Eastern Free Trade Agreement – 2006 (CEFTA-2006) on international trade with wine in the case of North Macedonia. The authors use Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) gravity models following the three-way fixed-effects benchmark of Yotov et al. (2016). Design/methodology/approach The authors use a model of pooled exporter–importer–year regression estimated by PPML. The findings show that Macedonian wine exports to the EU have fallen in the last five years. The statistical model confirms this trend: Being part of CEFTA-2006 significantly increases wine export values. Findings The authors find that CEFTA-2006 membership raises bilateral wine exports by approximately 28% on average (p < 0.01). North Macedonia benefits from an additional country-specific gain of 65% (p < 0.01), placing the combined Macedonian effect at approximately 91% – squarely within the 30%–100% range documented in the trade-agreement literature. A complementary North Macedonia-specific difference-in-differences analysis corroborates these findings with a + 133% effect (p < 0.01), confirming that CEFTA-2006 has a clear and measurable benefit for Macedonian wine exports. Originality/value CEFTA-2006 diversifies export destinations to reduce dependence on a single market and strengthen participation in regional initiatives to leverage opportunities for export growth. However, to maintain and enhance its growth, a comprehensive strategic approach is required.