Cascade and Attrition: Two Processes of Motivational Decline in Compulsory Military Service—A Longitudinal Study of Israeli Soldiers

This study examines the development of military motivation throughout compulsory service and the factors that contribute to its maintenance over time. The findings reflect two processes of motivational decline: “motivational cascade”—a sharp drop in motivation at the point of enlistment, and “motivational erosion”—a continued gradual decline over time. The study focuses on organizational factors that may moderate these processes. Data from a four-wave cohort-longitudinal study of Israeli conscripts were analyzed through multilevel modeling, to examine the contributions of within- and between-person components in explaining motivational variance over time. The full model explained 41% of within-person and 30% of between-person variance in motivation. While motivational drivers were found to anchor the level of motivation throughout service, hygiene factors operated as “erosion accelerators” dictating the rate of motivational decline. These findings hold significant implications for Western militaries in an era of growing geopolitical threats and the need to recruit and retain “human mass.”