Global Wind Technical Potential and Deployment Gaps (2014–2023): A Spatial and Structurally Adjusted Assessment

There is significant variation in wind deployment by country, and national capacity rankings and weighted resource indices are not able to separate out physical resources from market, policy and electricity-system constraints. This study proposes a physically interpretable and statistically adjusted global assessment of wind deployment based on 132 country and territory capacity records for 2014–2023, an inventory of onshore wind resources based on Google Earth Engine mapping of 201 geographical units, and published global offshore technical-potential data from World Bank – ESMAP. Onshore eligibility was screened at a nominal scale of 1 km, with wind speed data from the Global Wind Atlas, elevation-derived slope from the MERIT data, built-up intensity from the Copernicus data and World Database on Protected Areas. Fifteen scenarios were selected that involved wind speeds of 5.0–7.0 m/s and capacity densities of 3–7 MW/km 2 ; the central scenario included wind speeds ≥5.5 m/s and a capacity density of 5 MW/km 2 . Installed capacity grew from 371.2 GW in 2014 to 1,049.4 GW in 2023 and the ten largest markets accounted for 84.0% of the 2023 sample. Absolute potential (299,210 GW) was found to be a function of assumptions as illustrated by the range of scenario totals between 147,905 and 424,390 GW. However, country rankings remained highly stable (median Spearman ρ=0.980). The resource-only model used 126 countries and achieved an out-of-sample R 2 of 0.201, whereas the structural-policy model used 96 countries and achieved an out-of-sample R 2 of 0.629. The HC3 coefficient estimates for technical potential, electricity demand, GDP per capita, RISE policy readiness and grid losses were positive. Grid losses were treated as an imperfect electricity-system proxy, and their positive coefficient was interpreted non-causally. The leave-one-country-out jackknife+ intervals performed well with empirical coverage of 96.9% and identified three countries whose observed capacities fell below the expected range. Eight countries were hotspots in all 15 scenarios. Only Sudan and Algeria were both universal physical hotspots and below the structural prediction interval. New Zealand’s combined potential ranked 24th and remained within the expected range, showing that high wind speed alone is insufficient for classification.