LAB #1014 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.6% to 41.1% (+9.5pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.6% to 41.1% (+9.5pp, n=333) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a minimum of 6 confirmations would have rejected the EURUSD SHORT (loss) and GBPUSD LONG (loss) from the live window, as both likely had fewer confirmations at entry. It would also have rejected the three REJECTED/open trades (XAUUSD, EURJPY, AUDUSD) — but those are already not counted as losses. The net effect on this small sample: removing 2 losses from 7 closed trades would shift the win rate from 4/7 (57.1%) to 4/5 (80%), a dramatic improvement, but the sample is tiny and the rejected trades may have been winners if allowed. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the +9.5pp win-rate improvement from the backtest (n=333) suggests a real signal quality gain, likely by filtering out low-conviction noise. However, the filter will also reject some winning trades, reducing total opportunity coun Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-08-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21928762
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #1014 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.6% to 41.1% (+9.5pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #1014 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.6% to 41.1% (+9.5pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.6% to 41.1% (+9.5pp, n=333) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a minimum of 6 confirmations would have rejected the EURUSD SHORT (loss) and GBPUSD LONG (loss) from the live window, as both likely had fewer confirmations at entry. It would also have rejected the three REJECTED/open trades (XAUUSD, EURJPY, AUDUSD) — but those are already not counted as losses. The net effect on this small sample: removing 2 losses from 7 closed trades would shift the win rate from 4/7 (57.1%) to 4/5 (80%), a dramatic improvement, but the sample is tiny and the rejected trades may have been winners if allowed. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the +9.5pp win-rate improvement from the backtest (n=333) suggests a real signal quality gain, likely by filtering out low-conviction noise. However, the filter will also reject some winning trades, reducing total opportunity coun Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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