Socioecological Trade-offs in the Yucatan Peninsula: Stakeholder Perceptions of How Urban and Tourism Development Reshape Nature’s Contributions to People

Tourism expansion and urban development in the Yucatan Peninsula have intensified pressures on ecosystems, altering the natural contributions to people (NCP) that sustain regional wellbeing. To better understand emerging socioecological conflicts, we applied a multi-criteria analysis to integrate and spatially represent the perspectives of key institutional stakeholders regarding: (1) the prioritization of NCP groups per ecosystem , (2) the NCP they consider most important , (3) the main ecosystem threats , and (4) the ecosystems most affected by tourism and urban development . To achieve these objectives, the following ecosystems were assessed: Coastal lagoon, Cultivated grasslands, Popal, Savanna, Tropical Forest, Tular, Coastal dunes, Halophytic-hydrophytic vegetation, Peten, Mangrove, Palm Forest, Cenotes. Regulatory contributions—such as water and air quality regulation and protection against extreme weather—were consistently identified as the most valuable across coastal ecosystems, whereas cultivated grasslands were primarily valued for their material contributions, particularly food production. Perceptions of threats and ecosystem vulnerability varied across states, reflecting distinct tourism and urbanization trajectories. Incorporating stakeholder perspectives allowed us to identify major socioecological trade-offs and land-use transformation patterns by state. Overall, current development dynamics appear to prioritize short-term socioeconomic gains at the expense of ecological functions, particularly regulatory NCP, underscoring growing concerns about the long-term integrity of the peninsula’s socioecological systems.