Rural Industrial Integration and Regional Environmental Pollution in the Yellow River Basin: Measurement, Heterogeneity, and Exploratory Channel Analysis

The Yellow River Basin is an important ecological security barrier and agricultural production area in China. Using panel data for nine sprovincial-level regions from 2010 to 2022, this study constructs a multidimensional development index of rural industrial integration and examines its association with regional environmental pollution. Regional pollution pressure is measured from total wastewater discharge, sulfur dioxide emissions, and general industrial solid-waste generation; the measure therefore captures broad regional pollution linked to agricultural and related industrial chains rather than agricultural non-point-source pollution alone. Two-way fixed-effects estimates show that higher integration scores are significantly associated with lower pollution levels. This association is statistically evident in the upper reaches, whereas the middle- and lower-reach estimates are not statistically significant and are interpreted as exploratory because each subsample contains only two provinces. Exploratory channel regressions suggest that agricultural technological progress, rural labor mobility, and agricultural industrial scale may help explain the observed association, but the regressions do not establish causal mediation. The findings indicate potential synergies between rural industrial integration and environmental governance, while also requiring caution regarding causal interpretation, composite-index boundaries, and small-sample regional comparisons.