Analysis of the Prices and Opportunity Costs of Carbon Capture Projects in Mangroves Compared to Those in Other Productive Systems

Mangroves are highly productive ecosystems due to their great capacity to store carbon, but they are also vulnerable to human activities and adverse environmental conditions. Their conservation is often constrained by the opportunity costs of shifting from traditional economic activities to blue carbon projects. This work analyzes the prices of the different carbon markets in ecosystems, compares them with the benefits obtained from other productive activities, and evaluates the viability of implementing carbon projects in mangroves. An exhaustive literature search is conducted to assess the carbon prices of ecosystems worldwide. The opportunity costs of mangrove carbon capture projects in Mexico are estimated from site-specific and regionally relevant economic data; additionally, broader national benchmarks are presented for contextual comparison but are not interpreted as direct opportunity costs where they do not represent realistic land-use alternatives for the mangrove sites analyzed. The price of carbon ranges from 4 to 86 USD per Mg CO2e. The most studied natural ecosystems are forests. The highest gross annual profit (GAP) from carbon sales is observed in Tabasco and Campeche. GAP with mangrove wood harvesting ranges from 628.0 USD ha−1 year−1 to 3917.7 USD ha−1 year−1. The highest GAP for crops is obtained for white corn in the state of Hidalgo. GAP of the economic activity of livestock ranges from 3167.59 USD ha−1 year−1 to 3365.71 USD ha−1 year−1. The blue carbon projects are competitive with other productive activities at relatively high prices (86 USD per Mg CO2e). In Tabasco, under certain high-price and high-sequestration scenarios, blue carbon projects can be competitive with local agricultural activities; however, this competitiveness is highly conditional on carbon price, sequestration rates, and local opportunity costs, and therefore cannot be generalized to all mangrove owners without site-specific appraisal. Fair carbon prices are required to make mangrove conservation projects attractive to producers.