In the shadow of uncertainty: how Norwegian petroleum developers decide to drill, drop, or delay

Petroleum companies are no strangers to uncertainty – technical, economic, and regulatory – even near the end of some drilling project. Should, say, a now-iffy offshore petroleum drilling operation be “dropped”, a decision carrying huge economic consequences? Or should it be delayed until conditions change? How do deciders determine a well’s fate if there is no immediate decision to drill? Drawing on 761 relinquishment reports from the Norwegian Continental Shelf representing decisions by 185 companies, we offer a grounded theory to answer these questions. Deciders, we learned, rarely follow formal processes or rely solely on objective data. Instead, they use experience to sustain momentum, prioritizing what seems sensible in the moment. Grounding our analysis primarily in Social Judgment Theory and Contextualism, we show how uncertainty is interpreted, negotiated, and rendered actionable in early-phase project development. We position this contribution in relation to bounded rationality, sensemaking, and strategic adaptation, offering a sensitizing framework rather than prescriptive tools. Project abandonment emerges not as a self-evident, data-driven outcome but as a subjective, context-sensitive judgment. Uncertainty proves a catalyst for rethinking assumptions, demanding diverse, situation-specific responses.