Words with Consequences: The 2016 Election and International Student Visa Demand in the United States

This paper examines whether the 2016 US presidential election altered international student mobility by transforming campaign rhetoric into a credible signal of future policy and social risk. Using country–year data on F-1 visa issuances and active international student enrollments, the analysis studies how international students from countries explicitly targeted during the campaign responded to the election outcome. Two-way fixed effects models and event study specifications are used to trace both average post-election effects and their dynamic evolution. The results indicate a sharp post-election reversal in new international student inflows among targeted countries. Event study estimates show that, prior to 2016, F-1 visa issuances from Muslim-majority and Arab World countries grew faster than those from a plausibly less-affected comparison group. This upward trajectory reverses in FY2017, with visa issuances falling and remaining persistently lower in subsequent years. In contrast, active international student enrollments exhibit substantially more muted responses, reflecting the stock nature of enrollment outcomes and the continued presence of cohorts admitted prior to the election. Together, these findings indicate that the election primarily affected entry decisions rather than inducing immediate exits among enrolled students.