Intra-generational income mobility in urban and rural Iran: insights from a panel analysis (2010–2022)

Purpose This study investigates intra-generational income mobility among Iranian households from 2010 to 2022. It examines patterns of movement across income deciles in urban and rural areas and describes how these movements coincided with major macroeconomic developments, including intensified sanctions and the COVID 19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach Using data from the Household Expenditure and Income Survey (HEIS), the study employs a rotating panel design to track households over time. Transition matrices and kernel density functions are used to quantify mobility rates and illustrate changes in expenditure distributions. The analysis compares two distinct periods, 2010–2017 and 2018–2022, to document shifts in observed patterns. Findings The results show that households at the lower and upper ends of the expenditure distribution tend to remain in their respective deciles more often, while middle deciles display greater movement. Urban and rural areas exhibit different mobility profiles, with urban households showing relatively higher persistence in lower deciles. Across the two periods, the overall structure of mobility appears broadly similar, with modest adjustments in upward and downward transitions observed during the later years. Research limitations/implications The study is limited by the absence of unique household identifiers, requiring address-based matching, and by the reliance on per capita expenditure as a proxy for income. Longer-term longitudinal datasets would enable future research to explore intergenerational dynamics. Practical implications The descriptive patterns observed across deciles and between urban and rural areas provide a basis for further examination of household mobility under varying economic conditions. These patterns may also offer useful reference points for broader discussions on household stability during periods of widespread economic change. Originality/value This research provides a long-term descriptive assessment of income mobility in a developing economy experiencing extended economic pressures. It highlights how mobility patterns evolved across urban and rural settings and how these patterns coincided with major macroeconomic episodes.