Wildfires, Land Markets, and Agrarian Inequality in Northern Pakistan

Wildfires are increasingly recognized as environmental disturbances associated with socio-economic transformations in agrarian systems. This study examines the associations between reported wildfire exposure, land-market outcomes, and agrarian inequality in the Malakand Division of northern Pakistan, a region characterized by forest–agriculture interfaces and livelihood dependence on land. The study aims to analyze how different levels of wildfire exposure are associated with land values, ownership patterns, market transactions, inequality, and coping strategies among farming households. A quantitative cross-sectional design was employed using a sample of 400 households selected through multistage sampling. Data were collected through structured questionnaires and analyzed using ANOVA, chi-square tests, multiple and logistic regression, hierarchical regression, and principal component analysis. Results show that reported land values differed significantly across wildfire-exposure categories (F = 48.72, p < 0.001), with directly exposed households reporting the lowest values. Regression analysis identified direct wildfire exposure as the strongest negative statistical predictor of reported land value (β = −0.468, p < 0.001), while directly exposed households had substantially higher odds of reporting land sales (Exp(B) = 6.35). Chi-square results indicate a significant association between wildfire exposure and land transactions (χ2 = 64.82, p < 0.001). Retrospectively reported landholding data show an increase in the Gini coefficient from 0.41 before the reported fire period to 0.53 afterward. The addition of land-transaction variables increased the explained variance in agrarian inequality to 72%, which is consistent with a potential land-market pathway but does not constitute evidence of causal mediation. Coping strategies such as land sale, migration, and borrowing emerged as dominant reported responses among affected households. The study concludes that wildfire exposure is strongly associated with land devaluation, land sales, and greater agrarian inequality. Because the study is cross-sectional and lacks an independently observed pre-fire baseline or causal identification strategy, these findings should not be interpreted as definitive causal effects.