LAB #997 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: EURUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.6% to 36.4% (+4.7pp, n=44) — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: EURUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.6% to 36.4% (+4.7pp, n=44) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current trade window, applying a EURUSD LONG filter would have blocked the EURUSD SHORT trade that closed as a loss, directly improving win rate by removing one losing trade from the sample. However, it would not have affected any other trades since no EURUSD LONG entries were present in the window. The net PnL delta would be positive by the amount of that single loss, but the sample size is too small to draw meaningful conclusions about broader performance. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, a EURUSD LONG filter could modestly improve win rate if the strategy systematically underperforms on EURUSD shorts relative to longs. However, the reported improvement of +4.7pp from n=44 is statistically weak and may be due to random variation or overfitting to a specific market regime. Risk includes missing pro Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-08-13
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21912964
Primary Topic
Competitive and Knowledge Intelligence
Type
preprint
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LAB #997 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: EURUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.6% to 36.4% (+4.7pp, n=44) — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Competitive and Knowledge Intelligence
preprint

LAB #997 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: EURUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.6% to 36.4% (+4.7pp, n=44) — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: EURUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.6% to 36.4% (+4.7pp, n=44) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current trade window, applying a EURUSD LONG filter would have blocked the EURUSD SHORT trade that closed as a loss, directly improving win rate by removing one losing trade from the sample. However, it would not have affected any other trades since no EURUSD LONG entries were present in the window. The net PnL delta would be positive by the amount of that single loss, but the sample size is too small to draw meaningful conclusions about broader performance. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, a EURUSD LONG filter could modestly improve win rate if the strategy systematically underperforms on EURUSD shorts relative to longs. However, the reported improvement of +4.7pp from n=44 is statistically weak and may be due to random variation or overfitting to a specific market regime. Risk includes missing pro Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Competitive and Knowledge Intelligence
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LAB #997 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: EURUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.6% to 36.4% (+4.7pp, n=44) — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS