Integrating Multi-Source Remote Sensing and Geospatial Data for Snow Disaster Risk Assessment in Northwestern China

Snow disasters constitute a major natural hazard in Northwestern China, where heavy snowfall, blowing snow, and avalanches pose significant threats to infrastructure and socioeconomic activities. A scientific assessment of regional snow disaster risk is therefore critical for disaster prevention, spatial planning, and sustainable development. This study integrates multi-source remote sensing and geographic data to develop a comprehensive risk assessment method. By entropy weight method (EWM), we construct an assessment model that quantifies the combined hazard potential of heavy snowfall, blowing snow, and avalanches. The results reveal a significant spatial correlation among the three primary hazard types. The average potential hazard intensity of heavy snowfall is greater than that of blowing snow, which in turn exceeds that of avalanches. Spatially, the comprehensive snow disaster risk is most severe in the Altai Mountains, the Ili River valley, and the Tacheng region. A moderate-to-high risk level is distributed across the southwestern valleys and the foothills of the northeastern mountains. In contrast, the lowest risk areas are concentrated in certain interior valleys and the leeward slopes of the Junggar Basin. The resulting regional risk zoning was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and disaster records. The model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.871 and an overall accuracy of 84.3%, indicating good spatial discrimination between high- and low-risk zones. These metrics support the application of the framework to regional snow disaster risk assessment.