Early warning and advisory can contribute to enhanced wheat stem and yellow rust management in Ethiopia

Abstract Wheat rusts are major constraints for global wheat production, leading to substantial yield and economic losses. To mitigate rust related production risks, disease forecast models generate time and location-specific information on the emergence and spread of wheat rusts. While predictions become increasingly more accurate, information on whether model outputs can enhance the effectiveness of farmers’ disease management is scarce. In this paper, we used farm household survey data and duration analysis to assess the responsiveness of smallholder farmers to risk predictions for wheat yellow and stem rust. The study used: (i) rust pressure forecasts from the wheat rust Early Warning and Advisory System (EWAS) that was first piloted in 2015 and routinely deployed in Ethiopia since 2017; (ii) within-season data on fungicide applications from 520 farmers from Ethiopia’s major wheat production regions. Results from duration models indicated that the timing of farmers’ fungicide applications for wheat rust control was associated with increasing predicted rust pressure levels and farmer exposure to related extension services. However, farm-level fungicide application dates showed that about one fourth of all applications occurred outside critical growth stages of wheat. We discuss how the existing operational rust surveillance system can enhance farmers’ wheat rust management.