Rapid increase of climate extremes reveals new areas of concern in Amazonia

Abstract Amazonia is highly sensitive to climate extremes, yet we lack an Amazon-wide assessment that examines the spatial-temporal changes in these extreme conditions. We address this within seasons and across the hydrological year, using a quantiles approach that integrates the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes and by linking changes in temperature with evapotranspiration. We show that high temperature extremes and temperature-linked measures of water deficit are both changing at a much faster rate than central trends. The 95 th percentile of maximum temperatures in the driest period increased by 0.49 °C per decade (dec -1 ) compared to 0.21°C dec -1 for the central trend of mean temperatures for the year. Crucially, over 700,000 square kilometres in central-north Amazonia have experienced increases in extreme dry season temperatures ≥ 0.75 °C dec -1 ( ≥ 3.22 °C over 43 years). Adaptation measures for these rapid changes in climate extremes must include preventing the deforestation and disturbances that amplify risks.

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Publication Details

Journal
Communications Earth & Environment
Published
2026-09-10
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03975-1
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
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article

Rapid increase of climate extremes reveals new areas of concern in Amazonia

Ted R. Feldpausch, Cássio Alencar Nunes, Jos Barlow, Yadvinder Malhi et al.
Communications Earth & Environment
Climate variability and models
article

Rapid increase of climate extremes reveals new areas of concern in Amazonia

Ted R. Feldpausch, Cássio Alencar Nunes, Jos Barlow, Yadvinder Malhi, Tomas F. Domingues, Rafael S. Oliveira, Fabrício Beggiato Baccaro, Nathália S. Carvalho, Beatriz Schwantes Marimon, Igor José Malfetoni Ferreira, Liana O. Anderson, Douglas C. Morton, Oliver L. Phillips, Alexander Charles Lees, Divino Vicente Silvério, Paulo Brando, Cecília Gontijo Leal, Helga Correa Wiederhecker, Patrícia S. Silva, Lucy Rowland, Ane Alencar, Thiago B. A. Couto, Celso H. L. Silva, Érika Berenguer, Juliana Schietti, Leonardo Miranda, Ben Hur Marimon, Toby Gardner, Lina M. Mercado, Oliver C. Metcalf, Kristian Bodolai, Edward Mitchard, Ima C. G. Vieira, Joice N. Ferreira, David M. Lapola, Emanuel Gloor, Patrick Meir, Bernardo M. Flores, Fernando Elias, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Bel Lyon, Paulo Amador Tavares, Mike Barret, Camila S. J. Silva, David Galbraith, Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar, Marcia Macedo, Val Kapos, Jeanne L. Nel, Cristina Telhado, Stephen Sitch, Juliana M. Silveira, Marina Hirota
article en

Abstract

Abstract Amazonia is highly sensitive to climate extremes, yet we lack an Amazon-wide assessment that examines the spatial-temporal changes in these extreme conditions. We address this within seasons and across the hydrological year, using a quantiles approach that integrates the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes and by linking changes in temperature with evapotranspiration. We show that high temperature extremes and temperature-linked measures of water deficit are both changing at a much faster rate than central trends. The 95 th percentile of maximum temperatures in the driest period increased by 0.49 °C per decade (dec -1 ) compared to 0.21°C dec -1 for the central trend of mean temperatures for the year. Crucially, over 700,000 square kilometres in central-north Amazonia have experienced increases in extreme dry season temperatures ≥ 0.75 °C dec -1 ( ≥ 3.22 °C over 43 years). Adaptation measures for these rapid changes in climate extremes must include preventing the deforestation and disturbances that amplify risks.

Communications Earth & EnvironmentVol. 7(1)
University of East Anglia (GB), Manchester Metropolitan University (GB), Goddard Space Flight Center (US), University of Leeds (GB), Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi (BR), Universidade de Ribeirão Preto (BR), UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (GB), Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) (BR), Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (BR), Universidade de Santiago de Compostela (ES), University of Exeter (GB), Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso (BR), Department of Space (IN), Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso (BR), Yale University (US), University of Oxford (GB), Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (BR), UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB), Amazon Research Foundation (BR), Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia (BR), WWF-UK (GB), Universidade Estadual do Amapá (BR), Stockholm Environment Institute (SE), Universidade Federal do Maranhão (BR), Universidade Federal do Amazonas (BR), Lancaster University (GB), Columbia University (US), Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (BR), Wageningen University & Research (NL), University of Edinburgh (GB)
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