Vegetation increasingly controlled by atmospheric dryness rather than soil moisture
Abstract Terrestrial vegetation regulates global carbon cycling and climate through responses to water availability. Yet, it remains unclear whether soil moisture (SM) or atmospheric dryness (vapour pressure deficit, VPD) dominates vegetation responses and, more critically, how their relative influence changes over time, limiting predictions of ecosystem–climate feedback under warming. Here we analyse satellite-derived vegetation variability over the past four decades using an explainable artificial intelligence framework that disentangles nonlinear hydroclimatic driver contributions. We show SM dominates vegetation variability in most regions. However, VPD influence has strengthened while SM influence has weakened over time. These changes highlight an asymmetric transition with more SM-dominated ecosystems shifting towards increasing VPD control than vice versa. Changes in the mean and variability of SM and VPD drive this transition by altering plant water-stress responses. Continued warming will probably intensify this pattern as rising VPD and more frequent extreme events strengthen atmospheric constraints on vegetation.
Authors
- Yilin Fang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1969-9889)
- Lingcheng Li (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6834-5844)
- Shiqin Xu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4899-0598)
- Jiafu Mao (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2050-7373)
- Wantong Li (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9861-4294)
- Charles D. Koven (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065)
- Jeffrey Quintin Chambers (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3983-7847)
- Nate G. McDowell (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2178-2254)
- Zhonghua Zheng (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-650X)
- Mingjie Shi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2469-4831)
- L. Ruby Leung (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3221-9467)
Institutions
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (US)
- University of Manchester (GB)
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (SA)
- Washington State University (US)
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Geoscience
- Published
- 2026-10-28
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02107-w
- Citations
- 1
- Primary Topic
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 3.01
Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy
- Office of Science
- Biological and Environmental Research
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory