Short-Term Agricultural Commodity Price Forecasting: A Metaheuristic-Optimized LSTM–Attention Framework

Accurate short-term agricultural commodity price forecasting is important for market monitoring, procurement planning, inventory management, and price–risk awareness. This study develops a data-driven forecasting framework, namely CMACS–ARO–LSTM–Attention (CALA), which combines an LSTM–Attention predictor with an improved Artificial Rabbits Optimization algorithm. The original reported CALA results are retained unchanged. This minimal revision adds persistence/random-walk and ARIMA references on the archived comparison blocks. For wheat, the reported CALA result is R2=0.995, RMSE =0.008, MAE =0.004, and MAPE =0.021%; the newly added persistence/random-walk and ARIMA references have RMSE values of 0.102 and 0.092, respectively. The soybean application is presented as supplementary mixed evidence rather than proof of broad generalization. The high goodness of fit is interpreted as short-horizon price-level approximation in a persistent series, not as proof of directional trading profitability. Repeated CALA runs, formal predictive-accuracy tests, equal-budget ablations, and multi-step interval forecasts remain outside this minimal revision.

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Publication Details

Journal
Agriculture
Published
2026-08-03
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16151669
Primary Topic
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Short-Term Agricultural Commodity Price Forecasting: A Metaheuristic-Optimized LSTM–Attention Framework

Xiang Li, Songsong Hou, Yan Guo, Yuanping Zhang et al.
Agriculture
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
article

Short-Term Agricultural Commodity Price Forecasting: A Metaheuristic-Optimized LSTM–Attention Framework

Xiang Li, Songsong Hou, Yan Guo, Yuanping Zhang, Chang Su, Yukai Chang
article en

Abstract

Accurate short-term agricultural commodity price forecasting is important for market monitoring, procurement planning, inventory management, and price–risk awareness. This study develops a data-driven forecasting framework, namely CMACS–ARO–LSTM–Attention (CALA), which combines an LSTM–Attention predictor with an improved Artificial Rabbits Optimization algorithm. The original reported CALA results are retained unchanged. This minimal revision adds persistence/random-walk and ARIMA references on the archived comparison blocks. For wheat, the reported CALA result is R2=0.995, RMSE =0.008, MAE =0.004, and MAPE =0.021%; the newly added persistence/random-walk and ARIMA references have RMSE values of 0.102 and 0.092, respectively. The soybean application is presented as supplementary mixed evidence rather than proof of broad generalization. The high goodness of fit is interpreted as short-horizon price-level approximation in a persistent series, not as proof of directional trading profitability. Repeated CALA runs, formal predictive-accuracy tests, equal-budget ablations, and multi-step interval forecasts remain outside this minimal revision.

AgricultureVol. 16(15)
Sichuan Agricultural University (CN)
National Natural Science Foundation of China, Chengdu Office of Philosophy and Social Science
Zero hunger
Openalex Percentile: Top 5%
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
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