Predictive Modeling of Critical Thinking Skills: An Ordinal Regression Approach

Abstract. The Philippine higher education system requires developing critical thinking skills in Bachelor of Arts (BA) in History to deconstruct complex narratives and evaluate sources. However, in this generation of information overflow, imparting these skills has become a challenge. To address this, this study investigated the level of critical thinking skills among 166 BA History students and explored how specific analytical and reflective competencies predict academic year-level progression. Utilizing a quantitative correlational design, data gathered through twenty (20) item questionnaires were analyzed using descriptive statistics and ordinal logistic regression. Results revealed that students maintain high baseline competencies across both domains, excelling at tracking cause-and-effect pathways and post-task self-improvement, while showing minor challenges in structural problem decomposition. Crucially, predictive modeling identified evidence-based interpretation as a significant positive predictor of year-level progression, validating primary source verification as the program’s developmental backbone. Conversely, recognizing one’s own knowledge limitations emerged as a negative predictor, capturing an intellectual shift from lower-class level’s naïve cognitive confidence to advanced students sophisticated academic humility. Based on these findings, distinct interventions may be considered to maximize student development. History teachers may transition from passive lectures toward highly scaffolded instruction that explicitly teaches structural problem-decomposition frameworks. Furthermore, educators may design assessments that normalize the limitations of historical data and reward the cognitive humility shown by advanced students. Concurrently, history students may transition from reactive emotional reflection to proactive, active self-regulated learning. They may deliberately audit the operational efficiency of how they study, replacing passive reading with active source interrogation while continuously anchoring all historical arguments in verifiable empirical footprints of the past. Keywords: Analytical Skills; Critical Thinking Skills; Evaluative Skills; History Program; Ordinal Regression Analysis