Scripting future wars: from vision to decision

Abstract The premise of this article is that leaders’ decisions to go to war, or not go to war, and the way that states initially go to war, are fundamentally shaped by a concept labelled here as a ‘war script’. In simple terms, a war script is a decision-maker’s conception of what a specific future war will consist of and how it will play out. It is based on this conception that leaders will assess costs and benefits and then decide whether to go to war. This article sets out to develop a rationale, conceptual framework and methodology for a war script. Although the concept will require further refinement, it has the potential to offer a more targeted method for the analysis of decisions about war than many similar concepts in the war studies field.