Patterns associated with circular economy practices: socioeconomic and infrastructural insights from Tehran

This study investigates the social, economic, cultural, and infrastructural factors associated with circular economy (CE) practices across 22 districts of Tehran from 2019 to 2023. Using recorded dry waste generation as an imperfect proxy for certain dimensions of circular economy behaviour, the analysis employs conventional and spatial panel data models to capture inter-district interactions and spillover effects. The results show that municipal revenues, urban infrastructure quality, demographic characteristics, and socioeconomic conditions significantly shape dry waste generation patterns and outcomes consistent with elements of circular economy behaviour. Higher municipal revenues and improved infrastructure (measured through both incident reports and the availability of public green spaces) are associated with lower per capita dry waste, with notable positive spillover effects on neighbouring districts. Demographic factors, particularly family size, also influence waste outcomes linked to circularity, while traditional lifestyles and poverty exhibit intertwined and mixed effects. The COVID-19 pandemic further contributed to temporary reductions in dry waste generation, with spatially diffused impacts across districts. Spatial panel results highlight strong inter-district dependencies, underscoring the importance of regional coordination in CE policy design. Overall, the study demonstrates that effective CE strategies in urban areas require integrated economic, infrastructural, and social interventions, alongside collaborative governance across districts.