Farmers’ perceptions and meteorological evidence of climate change across agroecologies in Wollo, Ethiopia

Understanding differential perceptions of communities about climate-related problems and changes is of growing interest in research and practice; yet most studies in Ethiopia treat farmers as a homogeneous group and overlook perception differences across agroecological zones. This study addresses this gap by comparing farmers’ perceptions of climate change with four decades of meteorological evidence (1981–2022) across the different agroecological zones in Wollo. Using a mixed-methods design—comprising focus group discussions, in-depth interviews, and meteorological trend analyses (Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope)—the study examined how local experiential knowledge aligns or diverges from observed climatic trends. Quantitatively, 91% of Kolla farmers, 78% of Woina Dega farmers, and 69% of Dega farmers reported rising temperatures, consistent with significant increases in minimum and mean annual temperatures recorded across all agroecologies. Perceptions of declining rainfall were widespread, though observed rainfall trends were spatially mixed: stations such as Flakit and Mersa showed significant declines, while Ajbar, Kokeager, and Mekaneselam exhibited significant increases. Seasonal variability was highest during the Belg (MAM) season, a nuance not fully recognized by farmers who emphasized shortened and unpredictable rainy seasons. While the study benefits from integrating qualitative and quantitative evidence, limitations include sparse station coverage in mountainous areas and the inherent constraints of bias-corrected gridded datasets. Findings underscore the need for agroecology-specific interventions: water stress and irrigation strategies in Kolla and strengthened climate information services for Woina Dega and Dega, where perceptions diverge more from observed patterns. The results provide actionable insights for Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy and contribute to SDGs 13 (Climate Action), 2 (Zero Hunger), and 1 (No Poverty).