State of Wildfires 2025–2026

The global geography, behaviour, and impact of fires are shifting, as spatially varying human influences interact with a visibly changing climate. The State of Wildfires project systematically tracks global and regional fire activity, analyses the causes of prominent extreme wildfire events for three focal regions, and projects the likelihood of similar events under future climate scenarios. During the March 2025–February 2026 fire season, global burned area (BA) was 18 % below the 2002–2024 average and global fire carbon (C) emissions were also 20 %–31 % below average, making it one of the lowest years on record. Yet this globally low fire year still produced widespread regional impacts. Canada experienced a third consecutive extreme fire year, with national fire C emissions at nearly triple the average since 2002, 70 000 evacuations, and reported direct losses of USD 360 million. In the Midwestern Canadian Shield Forests, the epicentre of Canada's anomalous season, we find that anthropogenic climate change has nearly doubled (likely synthesis range 0.33–44.9, median 1.85) the likelihood of extreme fire weather in this region and made the observed BA around 10 times more likely during July–August 2025. BA extent in the region is found to be 9 times greater. Many parts of Europe also experienced record or high-ranking BA and fire C emissions, including in Spain, Portugal, and the UK, and a record USD 4.11 billion of physical assets were exposed to fire across the continent. Direct fatalities occurred in Türkiye (17), Spain (8), Portugal (6), Cyprus (2), Greece (1) and France (1), and evacuations in Türkiye, Spain, and Greece totalled over 110 000. In the Northwest Iberian Peninsula, we find that extreme fire weather over August 2025 was around 3 times (virtually certain modelled range 0.14–657, median 3.63) more likely due to climate change. Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0), fires of the same return interval are likely to burn about 78 % more area by the end of the century, with some projections within the same scenario suggesting increases of around sevenfold. In Chile and northwest Argentina, January–February 2026 fires caused 23 fatalities, displaced 55 000 people and threatened a UNESCO World Heritage Site. In the Chilean Temperate Forests and Matorral, the epicentre, we find that BA was around two times larger due to anthropogenic climate change. Across all focal regions in this report, the conditions for extreme fire developed gradually through months of precipitation deficits, cumulative drying and, in the case of Northwest Iberia, antecedent fuel accumulation aided by preceding wet periods. Continued climate change is expected to intensify these hydroclimatic extremes. However, comparison of SSP3-7.0 with SSP5-8.5 suggests that projected end-of-century extreme BA events in our focal regions are 4 %–23 % smaller than under the very high-emissions futures that were once considered plausible.. Meeting the Paris targets (SSP1-2.6) would further reduce BA during these events by 5 %–36 % across our focal regions. By integrating expertise from across the wildfire community with state-of-the-art observations, data, and modelling, this annual report advances understanding of regional wildfire extremes and their drivers, providing evidence to inform policy, preparedness, mitigation, adaptation, and broader societal benefit. Fifteen new and updated datasets created in this report are available from the State of Wildfires Project's Zenodo community (https://zenodo.org/communities/stateofwildfiresproject/, last access: 23 October 2026).

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Publication Details

Journal
Earth system science data
Published
2026-11-11
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-8037-2026
Citations
3
Primary Topic
Fire effects on ecosystems
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
5.10

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article

State of Wildfires 2025–2026

Tim S. Doherty, John T. Abatzoglou, Kebonye Dintwe, Jakob Benjamin Wessel et al.
3 citations
Earth system science data
Fire effects on ecosystems
5.10
article

State of Wildfires 2025–2026

Tim S. Doherty, John T. Abatzoglou, Kebonye Dintwe, Jakob Benjamin Wessel, Miguel Ángel Torres‐Vázquez, Paulo M. Fernandes, Кукавская Елена Александровна, Andrew James Hartley, Cristina Santín, Joe McNorton, Dave van Wees, Stijn Hantson, Mark Parrington, J. K. Shuman, Hamish G. Clarke, Lukas Fiedler, Guilherme Mataveli, Olivia Haas, Iulian-Alin Roșu, Carmen B. Steinmann, Douglas Stephen Hamilton, Mojtaba Sadegh, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Chantelle Burton, Duarte Oom, Sarah Meier, Douglas Ian Kelley, Seppe Lampe, Sander Veraverbeke, Julien Ruffault, Marco Turco, Veerachai Tanpipat, Patrícia S. Silva, Theodore Keeping, Sarah L. Harris, Jean-Luc Kouassi, Sally A. Archibald, Víctor Resco de Dios, Maria Lucia Ferreira Barbosa, Jonathan Eden, Guido R. van der Werf, Fiona R. Spuler, Victoria M. Donovan, Niels Andela, Crystal A. Kolden, Bo Zheng, Emilio Chuvieco, Carlota Segura-Garcia, Esther Brambleby, Zhongwei Liu, Andy Ciavarella, Fernando Sedano, Carlos M. Di Bella, Francisco de la Barrera, Liana O. Anderson, Yuquan Qu, Enza Di Tomaso, Robert Potts, Louis Giglio, Matthew W. Jones
article en
3 citations

Abstract

The global geography, behaviour, and impact of fires are shifting, as spatially varying human influences interact with a visibly changing climate. The State of Wildfires project systematically tracks global and regional fire activity, analyses the causes of prominent extreme wildfire events for three focal regions, and projects the likelihood of similar events under future climate scenarios. During the March 2025–February 2026 fire season, global burned area (BA) was 18 % below the 2002–2024 average and global fire carbon (C) emissions were also 20 %–31 % below average, making it one of the lowest years on record. Yet this globally low fire year still produced widespread regional impacts. Canada experienced a third consecutive extreme fire year, with national fire C emissions at nearly triple the average since 2002, 70 000 evacuations, and reported direct losses of USD 360 million. In the Midwestern Canadian Shield Forests, the epicentre of Canada's anomalous season, we find that anthropogenic climate change has nearly doubled (likely synthesis range 0.33–44.9, median 1.85) the likelihood of extreme fire weather in this region and made the observed BA around 10 times more likely during July–August 2025. BA extent in the region is found to be 9 times greater. Many parts of Europe also experienced record or high-ranking BA and fire C emissions, including in Spain, Portugal, and the UK, and a record USD 4.11 billion of physical assets were exposed to fire across the continent. Direct fatalities occurred in Türkiye (17), Spain (8), Portugal (6), Cyprus (2), Greece (1) and France (1), and evacuations in Türkiye, Spain, and Greece totalled over 110 000. In the Northwest Iberian Peninsula, we find that extreme fire weather over August 2025 was around 3 times (virtually certain modelled range 0.14–657, median 3.63) more likely due to climate change. Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0), fires of the same return interval are likely to burn about 78 % more area by the end of the century, with some projections within the same scenario suggesting increases of around sevenfold. In Chile and northwest Argentina, January–February 2026 fires caused 23 fatalities, displaced 55 000 people and threatened a UNESCO World Heritage Site. In the Chilean Temperate Forests and Matorral, the epicentre, we find that BA was around two times larger due to anthropogenic climate change. Across all focal regions in this report, the conditions for extreme fire developed gradually through months of precipitation deficits, cumulative drying and, in the case of Northwest Iberia, antecedent fuel accumulation aided by preceding wet periods. Continued climate change is expected to intensify these hydroclimatic extremes. However, comparison of SSP3-7.0 with SSP5-8.5 suggests that projected end-of-century extreme BA events in our focal regions are 4 %–23 % smaller than under the very high-emissions futures that were once considered plausible.. Meeting the Paris targets (SSP1-2.6) would further reduce BA during these events by 5 %–36 % across our focal regions. By integrating expertise from across the wildfire community with state-of-the-art observations, data, and modelling, this annual report advances understanding of regional wildfire extremes and their drivers, providing evidence to inform policy, preparedness, mitigation, adaptation, and broader societal benefit. Fifteen new and updated datasets created in this report are available from the State of Wildfires Project's Zenodo community (https://zenodo.org/communities/stateofwildfiresproject/, last access: 23 October 2026).

Earth system science dataVol. 18(11)
University of East Anglia (GB), Boise State University (US), Met Office (GB), Environmental Defense Fund (US), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (IT), Vrije Universiteit Brussel (BE), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (ES), North Carolina State University (US), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (AR), University of Leicester (GB), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (GB), University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro (PT), University of California, Merced (US), University of Botswana (BW), Universitat de Lleida (ES), Universität Hamburg (DE), Universidad de Oviedo (ES), The University of Melbourne (AU), University of Concepción (CL), Universidad de Alcalá (ES), University of the Witwatersrand (ZA), Kasetsart University (TH), Universidad de Buenos Aires (AR), Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR), Norwich Research Park (GB), European Commission (BE), University Town of Shenzhen (CN), Yale University (US), University of Florida (US), ETH Zurich (CH), Krasnoyarsk Scientific Center (RU), Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR), UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB), Agricultural Plant Physiology and Ecology Research Institute (AR), Écologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes (FR), Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (FR), Joint Research Center (BE), Joint Research Centre (IT), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (FR), Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RU), National Centre for Earth Observation (GB), Institut National Polytechnique Félix Houphouët-Boigny (CI), Tyndall Centre (GB), Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions (AU), Joint Research Centre (NL), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (DE), Instituto Mixto de Investigación en Biodiversidad (ES), Center for Scalable Data Analytics and Artificial Intelligence (DE), Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems (CH), Centro de Ciencias Ambientales EULA-Chile de la Universidad de Concepción (CL), Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School (CN), International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling (DE), Imperial College London (GB), Sukachev Institute of Forest (RU), University of Maryland, College Park (US), Coventry University (GB), Universidad de Murcia (ES), Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (BR), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL), University of Hong Kong (HK), Universidad del Rosario (CO), Wageningen University & Research (NL), Leipzig University (DE), Tsinghua University (CN)
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo, Department for Science, Innovation and Technology
Climate action, Life on land
Openalex Percentile: Top 6%
Fire effects on ecosystems
5.10
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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