Commuting Flows and Regional Resilience: a Socio-Spatial Analysis of Population Change in Sweden

The interplay between population dynamics, resilience, and commuting patterns forms a critical nexus in regional economic and social development. This study investigates these intersections within the Swedish context, focusing on how spatial connectivity and labor market accessibility shape individual residential mobility and long-term population retention. The study addresses two central research questions: First, to what extent does a municipality’s position within the commuting network influence regional resilience as expressed through population retention? Second, how do spatial accessibility conditions contribute to differences in out-migration risks across municipalities? The objective is to analyze resilience not merely as an outcome but as a dynamic interplay between socioeconomic and spatial variables. Using data from the Swedish PLACE database, the study uses a longitudinal panel of individual-level residential, migratory, social, and commuting information. The analysis applies survival models to examine how individual characteristics and municipal-level spatial structures jointly shape the hazard of residential out-migration. The results indicate that population retention is significantly associated with spatial connectivity and labor market accessibility. Municipalities with stronger network integration and better access to nearby employment opportunities exhibit lower out-migration risks. At the individual level, age, education, family structure, and migration background emerge as important predictors of mobility behavior. Commuting diversity is positively associated with migration hazards, suggesting that more dispersed commuting structures may signal weaker local anchoring. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of spatial embeddedness and functional labor market access in shaping demographic stability and regional resilience.