Sustainable Regional Tourism Resilience in U.S. Counties During and After COVID-19: Economic, Social, and Environmental Determinants

The COVID-19 pandemic caused uneven employment losses and recovery across tourism economies. Using county-level Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data for 2010–2023, we estimate a 2020 third-quarter decline index and recovery indexes for 2021–2023, each benchmarked against national leisure and hospitality (L&H) employment change. In the full sample, a one-percentage-point higher 2019 L&H employment share was associated with a 0.0127 lower 2020 decline index and a 0.0495 lower 2021 recovery index. Pollution and population density were also negatively associated with both outcomes, whereas the share of second homes was positively associated with 2021 recovery. Natural amenities were positively associated with 2021 recovery. Social capital was not significant in the 2020 decline or 2021 recovery full sample but was negatively associated with decline and recovery in metro counties. The findings show that regional tourism employment resilience is shaped by economic dependence, environmental quality, settlement patterns, and amenity-based tourism resources. These are sustainability-relevant regional conditions, although the employment indexes do not directly measure sustainability outcomes. Policies should combine economic diversification with environmental protection and place-specific urban and rural resilience strategies.