Overrepresentation of Ethnic Minorities as Police Suspects: Disentangling the Differential Involvement and Differential Selection Theses

Abstract Ethnic minority youth are overrepresented in police records, yet the relative roles of differential involvement and differential selection remain contested. This study links self-reported offending with official suspect registrations for Dutch juveniles aged 12–18 ( N = 5,078) to examine how behavioural and structural factors contribute to ethnic disparities in police contact. Using negative binomial regression models, we find that differences in self-reported offending account for only a modest share of overrepresentation (9–16%). In contrast, socioeconomic status explains the largest proportion (27–39%), while urban residence contributes an additional 14–19%. Measures of social deviance do not systematically account for group differences. Even after adjusting for behavioural and structural covariates, ethnic minority youth remain 1.6–2.6 times more likely to be registered as suspects. These findings suggest that ethnic disparities in police registration cannot be understood solely in terms of offending patterns, but are closely intertwined with socioeconomic stratification and structurally patterned exposure to policing. By integrating self-reported and administrative data within a unified framework, the study refines the differential involvement versus differential selection debate and highlights the cumulative nature of inequalities in criminal justice processing.