A Dynamic Penetration-Rate-Driven Analytical Framework for Offshore Wind–Green Hydrogen Hybrid Systems

To analyze the impact of the expansion of grid connections for renewable energy sources, such as offshore wind power, and the application of energy storage technologies, such as hydrogen energy storage, on the energy system, this paper develops a dynamic penetration-rate-driven analytical framework (DPRAF). It analyzes the impact of relevant factors on the dynamic renewable energy penetration rate, changes in energy structure, electricity prices, and environmental governance costs. An improved two-stage optimization process comprising planning and verification is used to obtain system schemes and hourly penetration rates across various scenarios. The study found that the scale of wind power grid connection has a significant impact, while the application of hydrogen energy storage technology has a cumulative effect. This article also clarifies the transmission mechanism of the impact of renewable energy grid connection on market electricity prices in an imperfectly competitive market environment. Every 8 GW increase in grid-connected offshore wind capacity results in a rise of approximately HKD 0.004 per kWh in the electricity price under peak-time mode. The 16–24 GW range is viewed as a pragmatic compromise zone where the benefits of emission reduction remain commensurate with the associated environmental costs; however, once installed capacity exceeds 24 GW, electricity prices and the burden of mitigation measures experience a sharp, non-linear surge. The increase in grid connection scale will widen the environmental governance cost gap between liquefied hydrogen storage solutions and other solutions. The findings of this study further highlight the necessity of balancing benefits and overall costs in the development and application of renewable energy, providing a reference for future related work.