Urban water system resilience and risk assessment in a typical arid industrial city: a case study of Karamay

This study develops a multi-dimensional framework to assess urban water resource resilience and risk in Karamay, a typical resource-based industrial city in arid northwest China. By integrating long-term data on water supply and demand, meteorological and hydrological conditions, and municipal statistical records, the study reveals four key findings: (1) water supply has steadily increased since 2009, with reclaimed water use growing rapidly and industrial water use declining significantly, reflecting improved efficiency; (2) seasonal and periodic drought risks persist, particularly in summer, as shown by the SPEI analysis of both local and source regions; (3) spatial disparities in water supply and redundancy exist, with the Karamay district dominating overall water use and Dushanzi district exhibiting the highest redundancy due to high reclaimed water utilization and diversified sources; (4) while Karamay’s industrial water efficiency remains above the national average, infrastructure issues such as pipeline leakage, poor water availability, and limited reuse capacity still constrain resilience in some districts. The proposed indicator system and findings offer transferable insights for sustainable water management in arid and industrialized urban regions.