Assessing and predicting tourism readiness: a data-driven analysis of Niagara winery website

Purpose Research on wine tourism has traditionally emphasized onsite hospitality, regional branding and physical accessibility, while the role of digital readiness remains underexplored. This study aims to address that gap by developing a predictive framework that links wineries’ online features and geographic positioning to their tourism orientation in Ontario’s Niagara Region. By focusing on how digital readiness predicts tourism performance, the research contributes to the broader literature on digital marketing and the experience economy, moving beyond descriptive inventories of online presence toward a systematic understanding of digital performance and its capacity to offset spatial disadvantages in competitive wine tourism markets. Design/methodology/approach In total, 89 winery websites were audited across 66 features (July–August 2024; 91% coverage) to construct a Tourism Readiness Index (TRI) and a road network Proximity Index. Feature effects were estimated using predictive models, including bias-reduced Firth logistic regression and Random Forest (tenfold CV). Robustness was rigorously tested: univariate associations were adjusted using the Benjamini–Hochberg FDR correction, and index construction was validated against an alternative importance-weighted TRI (r = 0.94) and sensitivity analysis (Cohen’s κ = 0.43). Findings Experiential and transactional features are the strongest predictors of tourism readiness. Activity duration (RF importance 0.087) and winery photography (0.049) dominate model influence, with the Random Forest achieving AUC = 0.96. Firth logistic regression confirmed large effects (duration OR = 14.36; photos OR = 9.52; both p < 0.001) while resolving quasi-complete separation. All originally identified significant features retained significance after FDR correction (q < 0.05). Spatial proximity proved only conditionally influential; clustering revealed that digitally advanced but remote wineries perform on par with centrally located peers, confirming that digital execution can function as a substitute for location. Practical implications Results suggest a sequential “Digital Maturity Roadmap” for managers: first, secure foundational usability; second, invest in high-impact experiential cues (activity duration and professional imagery); and third, deploy transactional tools (booking and e-commerce). For policymakers, the TRI offers a noninvasive benchmark to identify regional capability gaps, while a federated booking platform is recommended to support smaller operators. Originality/value The study advances Digital Marketing and Experience Economy perspectives by demonstrating that value staging increasingly occurs online. Digital readiness is operationalized as a dynamic performance construct rather than a static feature inventory. A validated digital–spatial predictive framework (bias-reduced estimation, sensitivity checks and clustering triangulation) clarifies when digital investments substitute for locational advantage. The framework is transferable to experience-driven sectors such as museums, heritage sites and tourism destinations facing similar geography-digitalization tradeoffs.