Climate-driven spatiotemporal evolution of China's inland wetlands from 2000 to 2100

Global climate change is expected to exacerbate wetland degradation and loss. As ecosystems are highly sensitive to, and substantially impacted by climate change, the specific responses of China's inland wetlands remain largely unclear. Based on the TOPMODEL wetland diagnostic framework, combined with multi-source historical soil moisture datasets and 11 CMIP6 climate models, this study simulated and evaluated the effects of climate change on the area and spatial distribution of China's inland wetlands from 2000 to 2100. The results demonstrate that during the historical period (2000−2020), the climate-driven wetland area shifted from natural interannual fluctuations prior to 2010 to a significant growth trend thereafter. For the future period (2015–2100), the total national wetland area shows an overall expanding trend (exceeding 6.4% across different scenarios). However, extreme warming will aggravate spatial disequilibrium, increasing the probability of wetland loss in southern China, whereas wetlands on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau may face the risk of rapid expansion, potentially associated with warming-induced changes in cryospheric and hydrological processes. This study provides a scientific basis for formulating differentiated wetland conservation and climate adaptation strategies.