Dynamic Resilience Screening of Strait of Hormuz-Induced Trade Squeeze in Global Food Supply Chain Systems

A maritime chokepoint shock can spread beyond the countries directly connected to the affected route. We develop a monthly resilience screening model for a hypothetical Strait of Hormuz closure that separates direct disruption, scarcity-driven trade squeeze, household access pressure and delayed production risk. Hormuz severity variants and related Red Sea, Black Sea and fertilizer node scenarios test the stability of the modeled mechanism ordering. A three-event historical panel provides a limited external consistency check, not full model validation. In the baseline Hormuz stress test, mean modeled import availability pressure ranges from 0.0023 to 0.0076 on the normalized scale during March–August 2026. Trade squeeze accounts for 92.1–94.5% of that pressure, compared with 5.5–7.9% for direct disruption. Of 161 countries entering model-Alert, 39 later enter model-Crisis or a higher internal state. Crossings concentrate where reallocation pressure coincides with weak household access and delayed production risk. Historical estimates are directionally consistent for some events, although the Suez window exhibits non-flat pre-event coefficients and is not interpreted causally. The state labels are internal thresholds, not humanitarian classifications. The model identifies which propagation layer is binding and how quickly the associated intervention window closes.