Partner Stalking as a Possible Risk Factor for Subsequent Intimate Partner Violence Reported to New Zealand Police

Effective police responses to intimate partner violence (IPV) require empirically supported risk assessment to guide intervention and resource allocation. IPV practice guidelines commonly emphasize partner stalking as a key risk factor for IPV recurrence, particularly for severe or lethal outcomes, yet evidence supporting this position is limited. The current study therefore examined 1,126 IPV cases reported to New Zealand Police (NZP) to explore whether partner stalking predicted (a) any IPV recurrence or (b) physical IPV recurrence in a 12-month follow-up. For each recurrence type, we examined whether partner stalking was predictive on its own, and then when controlling for other risk assessment information commonly used by NZP. Partner stalking initially predicted any IPV recurrence, irrespective of severity or type; but lost statistical significance when other commonly assessed risk factors were included. It did not predict physical IPV recurrence at all. Although not directly testing severe or lethal IPV outcomes emphasized in practice guidelines, this study provides a useful examination of the possible links between partner stalking and subsequent IPV more generally. Findings suggest that partner stalking may not warrant a special status in predicting IPV recurrence, because it often co-occurs with other risk factors that collectively provide stronger predictive utility. Overall, this study represents a valuable step toward grounding partner stalking and IPV risk assessment, prediction, and triage practices in empirical evidence.