Delineating future ecological protection patterns: optimizing management zoning in the Yellow River Basin based on projected ecosystem services supply-demand relationships

Predicting ecosystem services (ESs) supply-demand dynamics and implementing ecological management zoning are essential for understanding future climate and socio-economic impacts, and for enabling differentiated, forward-looking ecological conservation strategies. Regrettably, current studies predominantly concentrate on “historical states” and seldom on the “future state”, thereby failing to offer forward-looking decision-making suggestions. Based on the latest SSP-RCP integrated scenario framework, we utilized land use scenario data, population, and GDP data to forecast the supply and demand of ESs in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Then, combined with the four-quadrant model, we quantitatively analyzed ESs supply-demand relationship. Subsequently, we constructed an ecological management zoning framework and further proposed an ecological management zoning construction plan for the YRB. We found that by 2050, ESs supply values under SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5 and SSP3-RCP6.0 scenarios will reach 137.830×10 4 yuan/km 2 , 132.565×10 4 yuan/km 2 , and 131.674×10 4 yuan/km 2 , respectively, all showing increases compared to 2020, with the most significant growth observed under SSP1-RCP2.6. Regulating service accounted for the largest proportion (51.541%~51.579%), support service ranked second (31.766%~31.919%), followed by provision service (9.418%~9.738%), and cultural service accounted for the smallest proportion (6.942%~7.163%). ESs demand in 2050 under SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5 and SSP3-RCP6.0 scenarios will be 13.516, 12.567, and 11.971, respectively, all showing a spatial pattern of decreasing from east to west. Four distinct supply-demand spatial matching types are identified across all scenarios: High supply-High demand, Low supply-High demand, Low supply-Low demand, and High supply-Low demand. Combined with the ecological management zoning framework constructed in our study, the YRB is divided into four zones, which are Ecological function conservation zones, Ecological patch restoration zones, Ecological node remodeling zones, Ecological baseline controlled zones. Subsequently, forward-looking and targeted ecological protection strategies were specifically formulated to address the unique problems faced by each zone. Our research innovatively applied the SSP-RCP scenario framework, addressing critical knowledge deficiencies in understanding ESs supply-demand dynamics and ecological management zoning under future variable scenarios. And the research outcomes provide scientific basis and decision-making support for achieving differentiated and precise ecological restoration management in the YRB, thereby effectively addressing uncertainties posed by future climate change and socio-economic development.